Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 22.664627 24.640626 26.770456 29.247088 32.060889 35.173848 38.899706
2026-01-04 19.421531 22.115083 25.219718 29.103773 33.891783 39.681029 47.337152
2026-01-11 17.416785 20.548449 24.352101 29.401440 36.070498 44.794310 57.460252
2026-01-18 15.754657 19.099182 23.330051 29.219791 37.456668 48.988382 67.210438
2026-01-25 14.448323 17.904197 22.423843 28.971207 38.590868 52.900634 77.374637
2026-02-01 13.461023 16.998479 21.760481 28.906979 39.888928 57.182507 89.145142
2026-02-08 12.595057 16.160048 21.078594 28.689494 40.859789 61.047033 101.213792
2026-02-15 11.840829 15.402907 20.423930 28.406994 41.639836 64.674421 113.888995
2026-02-22 11.192842 14.739617 19.836137 28.141678 42.375646 68.315021 127.770911
2026-03-01 10.650935 14.185869 19.357051 27.982578 43.245052 72.339593 143.985552
2026-03-08 10.151625 13.657974 18.870170 27.749373 43.930268 76.113019 161.129383
2026-03-15 9.977555 13.599714 19.097241 28.726053 46.979339 85.467610 197.963957
2026-03-22 9.545333 13.129068 18.648122 28.506906 47.736725 90.080061 223.984093
2026-03-29 9.186008 12.750142 18.320174 28.471564 48.864515 95.876480 258.071388
2026-04-05 8.926546 12.510904 18.201600 28.801451 50.800200 104.219764 308.684156
2026-04-12 8.598167 12.142892 17.841153 28.641227 51.654629 110.002713 354.550865
2026-04-19 8.282586 11.778171 17.461348 28.405895 52.305782 115.436781 405.076955
2026-04-26 8.020207 11.485772 17.185942 28.345923 53.351160 122.371221 473.066757
2026-05-03 7.752276 11.170696 16.850883 28.135352 54.008960 128.361057 545.297142
2026-05-10 7.492754 10.857246 16.499889 27.860907 54.472933 133.919615 625.457116
2026-05-17 7.252715 10.565482 16.170777 27.602914 54.944095 139.714074 720.990678
2026-05-24 7.042817 10.315167 15.902135 27.448161 55.662442 146.705283 847.090884
2026-05-31 6.835364 10.060174 15.611038 27.221247 56.160836 153.120322 989.842126